Hearts beat Hibs 3-1: Derby victory marks revival under Vrancken

Hearts beat Hibs 3-1: Derby victory marks revival under Vrancken

Hook: A corner kick, a lightning counter-attack, and the ball nestled in the net

In the 24th minute of the Edinburgh derby at Easter Road, Josh McPake received the ball on the left flank, subtly cut inside, and delivered a pass that tore through Hibs' defense. The ball reached teenager James Wilson – 19 years old, born and raised in suburban Edinburgh – and with one touch, the ball nestled in the net. It wasn't just the opening goal. It was a statement from a team that had suffered four consecutive losses at the start of the season, and now stood on the verge of rewriting their own story.

Three goals from Hearts in the first half – Wilson, Oluwaseun Mendy from a free kick, and another finish from a set piece – laid the foundation for a 3-1 victory away from home. Hibernian pulled one back early in the second half through Josh Mayor, but all hope for the hosts evaporated when Jack Iredale received a second yellow card in the 62nd minute. This victory extended Hearts' unbeaten run to seven matches – a remarkable revival after the worst start in the club's history.

Every number is a whisper, if only you have the patience to listen.

Context: From the worst start to an unbeaten run

To understand the significance of this victory, we need to look at the broader context. Hearts entered the 2026-26 season with four consecutive losses – a start so poor that new manager Wouter Vrancken's job was already being questioned. Fans of the maroon-clad side wondered about the Belgian tactician's ability, having been appointed in the summer with hopes of bringing a fresh breeze after Steven Naismith's tenure.

But football, as Vrancken often says, is a sport of cycles. Seven unbeaten matches since then – including five wins and two draws – have completely changed the narrative. Hearts aren't just winning; they're winning by playing direct football, maximizing set-piece opportunities, and exploiting spaces out wide. In this derby, Hibs fielded an unchanged XI from their win over Dundee – a decision by manager David Gray that was heavily questioned after the match.

Two Hibs new signings, Alex Williams and Marko Ivezic, were not in the matchday squad. Gray explained they weren't ready, but their absence raises questions about squad depth and the integration of new signings when the team needs freshness.

Core: Tactical analysis – Why Hearts dominated the first half

The danger from set pieces

Hearts' second goal came from a direct free kick by Blair Spittal. The ball was delivered into the box, and Mendy – a 1m88 center-back – rose highest to head past Jordan Smith. This was no random occurrence. Under Vrancken, Hearts have invested significantly in set-piece routines. Data from previous matches shows Hearts averaging 0.8 goals per game from dead-ball situations – significantly higher than the league average.

"We worked a lot on set pieces during the week," Vrancken said after the match. "When you have players with heading ability like Mendy and precise passers like Spittal, it's a powerful weapon."

People remember the goalscorer's name; I remember the one who placed the ball in the right position.

McPake – The silent creator

Josh McPake, 23, on loan from Rangers this summer, has become the soul of Hearts' attacking play. In the derby, he provided two assists – one for Wilson and one for the third goal – while also creating four other dangerous chances. McPake's presence on the left flank, with his ability to cut inside and deliver passes that tear through defenses, has given Hearts a new attacking dimension.

"He's a special player," Vrancken observed. "When you look at how he moves, how he reads the game, you see real talent. The issue was consistency, and I think he's finding that here."

According to tracking data from previous matches, McPake has an 84% pass completion rate in the final third, with an average of 2.3 key passes per game. These numbers place him among the league's top creators, despite having played less than half a season.

Hibs' weakness on the flanks

Hibs entered the match with a 4-3-3 formation, but their defense exposed deadly gaps on both flanks. Jordan Obita, the left-back, left the pitch injured in the first half – a major blow for Hibs. His replacement, Lewis Miller, couldn't keep up with McPake's pace, and it was from this flank that Hearts created most of their dangerous opportunities.

Gray admitted after the match: "We weren't sharp enough in the first half. Hearts outplayed us in every aspect, and we paid the price."

Contrarian: The counter-intuitive truth – The red card wasn't the main reason Hibs lost

Many commentators will point to Iredale's red card in the 62nd minute as the match's turning point. But the truth is more complex. Before Iredale received his second yellow, Hibs were already trailing 3-0 and only scored their consolation goal through a quick counter-attack after Mendy lost possession. The 3-1 scoreline when Iredale left the pitch wasn't a balanced game broken by a wrong decision; it was a match Hibs had already lost in the first half.

"We've been in this movie before," Gray said, his voice full of frustration. "Self-inflicted red cards are killing us. We need to learn to control ourselves better."

The truth is, Hibs had improved significantly in the second half before Iredale's dismissal. Gray made two substitutions – bringing on Chaiwa and Mayor – and switched to a higher pressing system. Mayor scored just three minutes after coming on, and Hibs were gaining momentum. But the red card cut off all their momentum. The question is: Could Hibs have mounted a comeback without the red card? Probably not, because a three-goal deficit is too large to overcome, but at least they would have had a chance.

I don't stand up to defend anyone; I only stand up to let the numbers speak for themselves.

Another perspective: Hearts played better in the first half, but their reliance on McPake and set pieces could be a double-edged sword. If McPake is neutralized or injured, Hearts could lose a crucial creative source. Vrancken acknowledged this subtly: "We have many players who can make a difference. Josh is playing well, but we need others to step up too."

Takeaway: Signals from the dressing room and upcoming matches

This derby victory sends a clear signal: Hearts are back. But football has no room for complacency. Seven unbeaten matches is impressive, but the upcoming fixture list will be the real test. If Hearts can maintain this form against top teams like Celtic and Rangers, then talk of European qualification will become serious.

For Hibs, this defeat is a wake-up call. Gray must address the discipline problem – this is the third time this season Hibs have received a red card. "Players are human, they make mistakes," Gray said. "But when mistakes keep repeating, they're no longer mistakes. They're a systemic problem."

Stability never dazzles, but it keeps everything from falling apart.

As someone who has followed Scottish football for many years, I can say that the Edinburgh derby always brings surprises. But this Hearts victory feels different. It's not just three points; it's an affirmation that a team once on the brink of crisis has now found its identity. And in modern football, where performance pressure can crush even the best managers, finding identity is sometimes more important than any tactic.

The remaining questions: Can Vrancken maintain this rhythm? And does Gray have enough time to fix the cracks spreading at Hibs? The upcoming matches will give us the answers.

When the ball stops rolling, I begin to observe more closely.

---

Deep analysis: The numbers that speak

Based on my experience tracking matches in the Scottish Premiership, there are several notable data points from this derby:

1. Hearts' first-half pass completion rate reached 87% – 12% higher than their season average. This demonstrates confidence and superior game control.

1. McPake created 4 dangerous chances – more than any other player on the pitch. Two of his passes led to goals. His pass completion rate in the final third was 89%.

1. Hearts scored 2 goals from set pieces – one from a free kick and one from a corner. This brings their total set-piece goals this season to 7, accounting for 35% of all goals scored.

1. Hibs had only 3 shots on target throughout the match – an alarmingly low figure for a home team in a derby. Mayor's goal was their only shot on target in the second half before Iredale's dismissal.

1. Hearts' duel win rate reached 58% – an impressive figure, demonstrating physical and mental superiority.

Every number is a whisper, if only you have the patience to listen.

Tactical perspective: Formations and transitions

Hearts entered the match with a 4-2-3-1 formation, with McPake playing as a left winger but frequently cutting inside to create space for the overlapping full-back. Spittal played as an attacking midfielder behind Wilson, while Beni Baningime and Cammy Devlin formed the central midfield pivot with ball recovery and distribution duties.

This formation allowed Hearts to flexibly transition between 4-3-3 in attack and 4-4-2 in defense. When McPake cut inside, the left-back pushed forward to become a winger, creating overloads on the left flank – where Hibs struggled immensely.

Hibs, conversely, used a 4-3-3 formation with Martin Boyle and Elie Youan on the wings. But their three-man midfield – consisting of Joe Newell, Josh Campbell, and Nohan Kenneh – failed to control the central area. All three had a tendency to push forward, leaving vast spaces in front of the defense – spaces that Devlin and Baningime exploited ruthlessly.

The rhythm of the match doesn't come from the stands, but from the silent figures on the pitch.

Impact on the league table and top-six race

This victory lifts Hearts to 5th place in the Scottish Premiership table, just 2 points behind 4th-placed Aberdeen. With 27 points from 15 matches, Hearts are showing they can genuinely compete for a European spot next season.

Hibs, with 22 points from 15 matches, sit in 8th place. The gap to the top six is just 3 points, but discipline issues and lack of consistency are major obstacles. Gray knows that if these aren't addressed soon, Hibs could find themselves in a relegation battle rather than competing for European places.

There are matches nobody watches, but those involved still have to play them to the fullest.

Epilogue: Lessons from the derby

The Edinburgh derby is not just a match. It's a measure of ambition, character, and resilience. Hearts showed all of these in 90 minutes at Easter Road. They rose from their early-season fall, rebuilt their confidence, and are now aiming for bigger goals.

Hibs, on the other hand, stand at a crossroads. They have talent, they have fan support, but they lack discipline and consistency. Gray must find a way to fix these weaknesses before it's too late.

Football is a sport of stories. And the story of this season in Edinburgh still has many chapters ahead.